J&K : After enduring predominantly dry weather during the 40-day harsh winter period known as ‘Chillaikalan,’ the Meteorological Department is forecasting light rain and snowfall in various locations from January 25-27. Officials anticipate that this spell will bring relief from the cold weather conditions prevailing in the Valley.
Director of Meteorology in Srinagar, Dr. Mukhtar Ahmad, informed Rising Kashmir that the current weather conditions suggest predominantly dry weather until January 24. However, from January 25-27, there is a likelihood of rain and snowfall at specific locations. Furthermore, between January 28 and 30, there is a potential for light rain or snow at scattered places in the region.
Dr. Mukhtar highlighted that visibility is expected to improve, the maximum temperature will increase, and overall fog reduction is anticipated over the next two days in the Jammu division.
Independent Weather Forecaster Aabid Maqbool noted that the western disturbance has been consistently diminishing in intensity and distribution over the past two days. This trend is expected to continue between January 25 and 28, resulting in reduced prospects of significant weather activity in Jammu and Kashmir during this period.
Despite this diminishing pattern, Aabid mentioned a 40% chance of another western disturbance impacting the region between January 29 and 31. Monitoring this potential disturbance will provide a clearer picture of any weather-related developments during that timeframe.
Kashmir is currently in the midst of the 40-day intense winter period known as ‘Chillai Kalan,’ which began on December 21. The region is yet to witness snowfall in plains as the dry spell persists, further lowering minimum temperatures in the Himalayan region.
MeT data reveals a significant rainfall deficit in the Kashmir Valley, reaching 79% throughout December 2023. The unusual weather pattern is speculated to be associated with El Nino, characterized by abnormal sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, which can impact global weather patterns. Additionally, the absence of a robust western disturbance is cited as another factor contributing to the lack of snowfall.
Temperature recordings from various locations in the region indicate deviations from normal winter patterns. Srinagar recorded -2.4°C, Qazigund -3.6°C, Pahalgam -3.9°C, Kokernag -1.1°C, Kupwara -4.3°C, Gulmarg -3.2°C, and Jammu 6.1°C.
On the transportation front, there has been a slowdown on the Srinagar-Jammu highway in the past 24 hours due to sluggish movement, vehicle breakdowns, and poor surface conditions. Authorities have announced that, contingent upon fair weather and favorable road conditions, both Light Motor Vehicles (LMVs) and Heavy Motor Vehicles (HMVs) will be permitted from both sides on the Jammu-Srinagar National Highway (NH-44). Commuters are advised to adhere to lane discipline.
Simultaneously, vehicular movement on the Srinagar-Sonamarg-Gumri road and the Mughal road will be permitted from both directions during specific hours, pending approval from road agencies.
